Each year that passes makes the reunification of North and South Korea more unrealistic. This has nothing to do with politics and everything to do about basic economics.
In the last 40 years, South Korea ’s economy has gone from a 3rd world economy to the 11th largest in the world, or third largest in Asia (CIAWorld Factbook). South Korea was recently inducted into the trillion dollar economies club and its economic future looks bright. The South Korean economy has boomed while the North Korean economy has floundered due to a failed communist regime. Each year increases the earnings gap between the average North and South Koreas citizen making any future reunification less likely. Every year that goes by the reunification door closes just a little more.
South Koreans get richer ($20,000 GDP, 2005) and enjoy a great standard of living, while the average North Korean fights just to survive on earnings that equal less than a dollar a day. If there was an open border between the two countries today, there would be a mass exodus of 20 million North Korean citizens into the south.
This economic disparity between North and South gives very little incentive for the South Korean government to reunify with the north. You can be sure that the South Korean government has studied the reunification of East and West Germany and the negative impact it had on the West German economy. Additionally, one just has to look at the immigration problem the United States has with Mexico due to the disparity of economies.
Let me assure you that the North Korean economy is much worse than that of Mexico or East Germany and the negative impact would be much more severe on South Korea . A North Korean regime collapse would be a nightmare scenario for South Korea . The Seoul government would have to send even more troops to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) just to keep out the 20 million plus North Korean refugees that would inevitably head south to look for food, jobs and a new life.
One just has to look at recent developments to see that Seoul has appeased North Korea . On 17 November 2005 , South Korea abstained from a United Nations resolution urging North Korea to improve their human rights. Why would the South Korean government abstain from pointing out the obvious? Because Seoul is only interested in the status quo and doesn ’t want to anger the Pyongyang government. Having a regime that abuses human rights in North Korea is better than having an economically devastated South Korea .
Eventually, Seoul will have to deal with the problem of North Korea . To its credit, South Korea has started many inter-Korea economic initiativesand send 100s of millions of dollars north in the form of aid. But this has done nothing to improve North Korea ’s economy. As South Korea ’s economy continues to boom and North Korea ’s remains a bust, the incentive for reunification diminishes and Seoul fully understands this. The Seoul government will do little to even attempt to reunify as reunification would devastate South Korea ’s economy. For now, guarding the status quo is the easiest solution to South Korea ’s problem to the north. The DMZ will stay for the foreseeable future, but eventually it will be to keep out North Korean refugees, not the North Korea military.
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